The National Conversation

The National Conversation is galvanising debate across Scotland. After 10 years, it is only right to look again at the devolution settlement. The political ground in Scotland has shifted, starting a process that will change the United Kingdom forever.

Professor Sir Kenneth Calman, one of the country's senior academics, has been unveiled as the chairman of a new cross-party, cross-border commission to revise the devolution settlement. Sir Kenneth is a devolutionist and a unionist, so it is safe to say that independence will not be considered a viable option. The commission has a huge remit, it can examine any and all parts of the devolution settlement and recommend any changes - as long as Scotland stays within the UK.

His recommendations will be considered by the main unionist parties but any changes to the devolution settlement will need to be enacted by Westminster, which would need to change the Scotland Act. Yet again, Scotland's future rests in the hands of Westminster.

The Scottish National Party's first choice is to have a for or against referendum on independence in 2010, aware that if the opposition parties vote the plan out, the SNP will be able to go into the 2011 election accusing its opponents of denying the public its right to decide Scotland's future.

First Minister Alex Salmond has been criticised for suggesting that the referendum be held under the Single Transferable Vote (STV) system, under which voters mark down their preferences, rather than voting for or against. But using STV to determine Scotland's future within the UK is controversial - under STV, the SNP could win independence with less than 50 per cent of people backing that as their first choice for the country.

Labour, Tory, and Lib Dem leaders are therefore also looking at ways to gain more powers for the Scottish Parliament, as part of the UK. Together, they command 78 out of the 129 MSPs in the Parliament, more than enough to drive through their plans in this or any other Parliament.

If the SNP believe their own spin, they could call a referendum on independence immediately. But mainstream opinion in Scotland appears to want devolution to work better and for Scotland to be secure in a stronger UK. If the Nationalists lose, it will surely turn into a "neverendum".

Emma Megaughin

Programmes Coordinator, Hansard Society Scotland

hansard.scotland@hansard.lse.ac.uk