• Our work

      Themes

    • Brexit and Parliament
    • Future Parliament
    • Governance of Parliament
    • Making better law
    • Parliaments around the world
    • Parliamentary scrutiny
    • Political engagement
    • Representation
    • publications

    • Publications Home
    • Procedural and constitutional guides
    • Briefings
    • Reports
    • Submissions
    • projects

    • Audit of Political Engagement
    • Mock Elections 2019
    • services

    • Statutory Instrument Tracker®
  • About

      about

      who we are

    • What we do
    • Our history
    • contact

    • Our people
    • Contact us
    • Contacts for the media
    • careers

    • Jobs
    • subscribe

    • Insight Notes newsletter
    • Hansard Society newsletter
  • Blog
  • News
  • Events
  • Journal
  • Scholars
Hansard Society logoHansard Society logo
  • Our work

    • Themes

      • Brexit and Parliament
      • Future Parliament
      • Governance of Parliament
      • Making better law
      • Parliaments around the world
      • Parliamentary scrutiny
      • Political engagement
      • Representation
    • publications

      • Publications Home
      • Procedural and constitutional guides
      • Briefings
      • Reports
      • Submissions

      projects

      • Audit of Political Engagement
      • Mock Elections 2019

      services

      • Statutory Instrument Tracker®
  • About

    • about

        who we are

      • What we do
      • Our history
      • contact

      • Our people
      • Contact us
      • Contacts for the media
      • careers

      • Jobs
      • subscribe

      • Insight Notes newsletter
      • Hansard Society newsletter
      • Join our newsletter

        Get the latest updates on our research and events, together with expert comment and analysis, delivered to your inbox each month.

        You can unsubscribe at any time. Read our privacy policy here.

        Thank you!

        You have been successfully added to our newsletter list.

        Follow us

        :( Oops! Something went wrong...

        Please reload the page and try again.

        Insight Notes

        Subscribe to our regular Insight Notes on parliamentary data, procedures and the legislative process at Westminster, including updates on Brexit Statutory Instruments - in your inbox every sitting Monday afternoon.

        You can unsubscribe at any time. Read our privacy policy here.

        Thank you!

        You have been successfully added to our Insight Notes email list.

        Follow us

        :( Oops! Something went wrong...

        Please reload the page and try again.

      Follow us

  • Blog

    Blog

    • blog

      • Despatch Box Blog
  • News

    News

    • news

      • News Home
  • Events

    Events

    • events

      • Events
  • Journal

    Journal

    • journal

      • Parliamentary Affairs
  • Scholars

    Scholars

    Labour Party Leader of the Opposition Ed Miliband giving a speech during the Labour conference 2015.
    blog / journal / 18.11.14

    Labour: the 35% solution?

    Share this

    Ed Miliband’s recent speech, in which he confirmed the lines along which his party will campaign during the six months up to the 2015 election, was seen by the media as part of a ‘fight-back’ to defend his leadership. This meant many ignored the real significance of the speech.

    Professor Steven Fielding

    Professor Steven Fielding

    Professor of Political History, University of Nottingham

    To be fair to the nation’s journalists, this hasn’t been a good time for Miliband. Of late, critics in the Parliamentary Labour Party have certainly been free with their opinion that what they see as the party’s weak position in the polls would be transformed if Labour ditched its current leader.

    Is such pessimism justified?

    Given Labour’s position on the morning on May 7th 2010, the party’s current competitive position in the polls is arguably remarkable. At 29%, Labour was just six points ahead of the Liberal Democrats and over seven behind the Conservatives: there was even a point during the 2010 campaign when it looked like the party would slip into third place.

    That election certainly brought the New Labour era to a crashing end. The party under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown had spectacularly returned to power in 1997 claiming the radically free market established by Margaret Thatcher could be used to reduce inequality. If there was some evidence that the government at least stemmed rising inequality, the 2008 international financial crisis suggested the free market was not as perfect as the leadership had assumed. If in 2010 Labour lost votes across the board, it was especially hit by being abandoned by those on modest incomes who had benefitted little during the years of boom and suffered most in the recession.

    With Labour widely blamed for the economic downturn, the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition looked set to further marginalise the party, giving the latter the credibility it had always lacked while putting the finishing touches to Cameron’s attempt to end his party’s reputation for being the ‘nasty party’.

    Labour in opposition moreover had to deal with the sense that the New Labour approach had ultimately failed to balance a Thatcherite free market with the social democratic goal of making society fairer. Whoever was elected leader after Brown stepped down had to address that issue: even David Miliband, long Blair’s anointed successor, called for ‘Next Labour’. But instead of David it was Ed who won that contest, largely because he vigorously argued that Labour had to row back from its uncritical adherence to the free market. This certainly appealed to those trade union members whose support was vital to Ed’s victory, while MPs mostly supported David.

    Dubbed by the ring-wing tabloids as ‘Red Ed’ the unions’ friend, Miliband moved the party to a somewhat more critical stance regarding the market, recognising New Labour had insufficiently helped those who needed it most in the years of boom. He was also responding to the fact that while the economy recovered after 2010 few outside those he termed the ‘squeezed middle’ were actually better off. This modest act of ideological rebalancing he felt was more appropriate to the public mood in 2015 than the one New Labour outlined in the 1990s.

    Many of Miliband’s own colleagues in the Commons were critical of this repositioning – they had after all backed David who was less critical of the market’s failures. Yet, despite attacks on his cautious leftward shift – and he also found himself ridiculed for his more obvious presentational incompetence – for much of this Parliament Labour enjoyed an opinion poll lead over the Conservatives. Even now, Labour retains a slight edge.

    Labour’s competitive position is however not completely – or even largely – of Miliband’s making. Were it not for the UKIP insurgency it is likely the Conservatives would be in a much healthier position. Cameron has also had to abandon his liberalisation project to appease backbench MPs for fear they will jump ship to Farage’s party. By entering an arrangement with the Conservatives Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrats also immediately saw many of its left-inclined voters flock to Labour.

    Miliband’s critics argue Labour should in any case have a much greater lead than it does, that its position has always been a function of the government’s unpopularity but that when the election comes close voters will turn to the Cameron who they trust to manage the economy more than Miliband.

    Time will tell

    In reality Labour is committed to a programme of cuts almost as massive as those planned by the Conservatives: there is little to choose between them there. But there are some crucial areas of difference and Miliband’s strategy is to emphasise how Labour will ensure the market better serves the interests of the majority.

    This approach was outlined in his ‘fight-back’ speech. There Miliband focused on Britain’s economic divisions, conjuring up the old Labour Party narrative of a top-hatted elite subjugating the rest of society. This would certainly have pleased some party stalwarts but it also flows from Miliband’s perception that the party has to reconnect with voters on explicitly social democratic – not UKIP – terms. This means addressing their real economic grievances – low pay, and job insecurity – rather than the current obsession with immigration. Some see that as a risky strategy: after all, immigration was recently named as the most significant issue facing Britain by 39% of those polled. But Miliband sees such opinions as either racist or the result of more basic material insecurities, which he seeks to address.

    This is a strategy best suited to exploit the Labour leader’s strengths, such as they are. For Miliband’s best moments have been when he has been personal and sincere, like when he defended his father against charges of hating Britain. He has also made a positive impression when he’s taken the politically risky path of standing up to powerful interest groups, as when he took on Rupert Murdoch. In any case, Miliband hasn’t got much of an alternative. He would lack any credibility in chasing after those drifting to UKIP, a move that would probably only alienate core supporters and those 2010 Liberal Democrat voters who currently back Labour. Certainly Gordon Brown did himself no good when in 2007 he talked about ‘British jobs for British workers’, putting off liberals in his party while failing to win over new support, because he didn’t follow through on his rhetoric – indeed he arguably helped bolster support for UKIP.

    In fact in a period of multi-party politics when the two main parties are level pegging, Miliband doesn’t have to go after those obsessed with immigration: he doesn’t need to pursue the catch-all electoral strategy which defined New Labour. Only a slight increase in the 30% or so who currently say they will vote Labour could be enough to make it the largest party and even possibly win Miliband a Commons majority. One of his greatest advantages here is the current electoral system, which significantly benefits Labour. By reducing the number of MPs and equalizing the size of constituencies, Cameron had hoped to reverse that position but divisions within the coalition saw that reform fail.

    The big challenge for Miliband now is that he has to maintain the strong and principled stance he assumed in his speech, through to the leaders’ debates. He has done what is, for him, the easy bit: now the Labour leader has to be strong at presentation and sell the message to the British people.

    He hasn’t been very good at this in the past: can he keep it up for six months?


    Steven Fielding’s research on Labour and the 2015 general election featured in ‘Britain Votes 2015’, the 2015 edition of the regular Parliamentary Affairs publication on each UK general election.


    Image Courtesy: Department of Energy and Climate Change, Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic


    Enjoy reading this? Please consider sharing it

    Featured

    Houses of Parliament aerial view
    journal

    Parliamentary Affairs

    Related

    'First virtual PMQs and Ministerial statement on Coronavirus', © UK Parliament / Jessica Taylor.
    blog / 04.12.20

    Why the exclusion of pregnant MPs from the House of Commons during Covid-19 matters – for them and for others

    Covent Garden Market, Westminster election, 1 Jully 1808 (designed and etched by Thomas Rowlandson), This print records temporary wooden stands erected outside St.Paul's Church in Covent Garden Market to allow politicians running for Parliament in the Westminster election to address voters. On this occasion a large crowd has gathered, carrying banners and spilling out into the square, with some figures perched on a roof at right to listen to a speaker. (Source: The Metropolitan Museum of Art)
    blog / 13.11.20

    Controverted elections: how disputed results used to be part and parcel of English political and parliamentary life

    Cover image for the Parliamentary Affairs journal
    journal

    Parliamentary Affairs (vol 73, issue 3, 2020)

    Cover image for the Parliamentary Affairs journal
    journal

    Parliamentary Affairs (vol 73, issue 1, 2020)

    The House of Commons debating the Withdrawal Agreement during the Saturday-sitting on 19 October, 2019
    news / articles

    Even with a majority, getting Brexit done on deadline will be no mean feat

    People walking over Westminster Bridge towards the Palace of Westminster, Houses of Parliament
    projects

    Audit of Political Engagement

    People walking over Westminster Bridge towards the Palace of Westminster, Houses of Parliament
    publica… / reports / 2019

    Audit of Political Engagement 16

    Audit 15 cover
    publica… / reports / 2018

    Audit of Political Engagement 15

    Join our newsletter

    Get the latest updates on our research and events, together with expert comment and analysis, delivered to your inbox each month.

    You can unsubscribe at any time. Read our privacy policy here.

    Thank you!

    You have been successfully added to our newsletter list.

    Follow us

    :( Oops! Something went wrong...

    Please reload the page and try again.

    Top three

    Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer in a socially distanced House of Commons chamber, 23 September 2020. ©UK Parliament / Jessica Taylor
    publica… / briefings / 2020

    Expediting of the European Union (Future Relationship) Bill through Parliament: five issues

    EU and UK flags in front of Big Ben, Houses of Parliament, Westminster
    blog / 29.12.20

    Parliament’s role in scrutinising the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement is a farce

    Coronavirus medical animation
    publica… / data / 2020

    Coronavirus Statutory Instruments Dashboard

    Latest

    EU flag missing a star, symbolising Brexit
    blog / 22.01.21

    Brexit and Beyond: Delegated Legislation

    The end of the transition period is likely to expose even more fully the scope of the policy-making that the government can carry out via Statutory Instruments, as it uses its new powers to develop post-Brexit law. However, there are few signs yet of a wish to reform delegated legislation scrutiny, on the part of government or the necessary coalition of MPs.

    Brexit and Beyond: Delegated Legislation
    EU and UK flags in front of Big Ben, Houses of Parliament, Westminster
    blog / 29.12.20

    Parliament’s role in scrutinising the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement is a farce

    Parliament’s role around the end of the Brexit transition and conclusion of the EU future relationship treaty is a constitutional failure to properly scrutinise the executive and the law. As the UK moves to do things differently after 1 January, MPs must do more to ensure they can better discharge their responsibilities regarding the making of UK treaties.

    Parliament’s role in scrutinising the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement is a farce
    Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer in a socially distanced House of Commons chamber, 23 September 2020. ©UK Parliament / Jessica Taylor
    publications / briefings / 2020

    Expediting of the European Union (Future Relationship) Bill through Parliament: five issues

    The EU (Future Relationship) Bill is to be considered by both Houses in just one sitting day. How unusual is such an expedited timetable and how much time will parliamentarians really have to look at the Bill? How will MPs participate in proceedings given Covid-19 restrictions? And how will proceedings, particularly the amendment process, work on the day?

    Expediting of the European Union (Future Relationship) Bill through Parliament: five issues
    'First virtual PMQs and Ministerial statement on Coronavirus', © UK Parliament / Jessica Taylor.
    blog / 04.12.20

    Why the exclusion of pregnant MPs from the House of Commons during Covid-19 matters – for them and for others

    The debate about remote participation in House of Commons proceedings raises critical questions about what constitutes a ‘good parliamentarian’, what ‘fair’ participation looks like, and who gets to decide. As things stand, the exclusion from much parliamentary business of pregnant women, among others, undermines equality of political representation.

    Why the exclusion of pregnant MPs from the House of Commons during Covid-19 matters – for them and for others
    blog / 04.12.20

    Reviewing Restoration and Renewal and planning for a post-pandemic Parliament

    The Coronavirus pandemic has added to the questions surrounding the nature of the Parliament that should emerge from the Palace of Westminster Restoration and Renewal programme. But, with concerns over the programme’s governance and public engagement rising, the report arising from the current review of the programme will not now be published this year.

    Reviewing Restoration and Renewal and planning for a post-pandemic Parliament
    Covent Garden Market, Westminster election, 1 Jully 1808 (designed and etched by Thomas Rowlandson), This print records temporary wooden stands erected outside St.Paul's Church in Covent Garden Market to allow politicians running for Parliament in the Westminster election to address voters. On this occasion a large crowd has gathered, carrying banners and spilling out into the square, with some figures perched on a roof at right to listen to a speaker. (Source: The Metropolitan Museum of Art)
    blog / 13.11.20

    Controverted elections: how disputed results used to be part and parcel of English political and parliamentary life

    Disputed parliamentary election results – often taking months to resolve – were a frequent feature of English political culture before the reforms of the 19th century. But how could defeated candidates protest the result of an election, and how were such disputes resolved?

    Controverted elections: how disputed results used to be part and parcel of English political and parliamentary life
    Prev
    Next
    • Recent pages
      • Labour: the 35% solution?blog / journal
    • Home
    • Contact us
    • What we do
    • Jobs
    • Privacy policy
    • Site map

    Join our newsletter

    Get the latest updates on our research and events, together with expert comment and analysis, delivered to your inbox each month.

    You can unsubscribe at any time. Read our privacy policy here.

    Thank you!

    You have been successfully added to our newsletter list.

    Follow us

    :( Oops! Something went wrong...

    Please reload the page and try again.

    Copyright © 2020 Hansard Society • Charity No: 1091364 • Registration No: 4332105.