After Rochester and Strood. Where next?

Blog

After Rochester and Strood. Where next?

25 Nov 2014

Ukip supporters with an 'I'm voting Ukip sign' canvassing voters during the 2015 UK general election. Wikimedia, Licensed under the Creative Commons

The Danish Nobel prize winning physicist Nils Bohr observed that prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. He wasn’t thinking about the 2015 general election when he said this, but he might as well have been.

Professor Andrew Geddes,
Professor of Politics, University of Sheffield

Get our latest research, insights and events delivered to your inbox

Share this and support our work

The Rochester and Strood by-election makes things more uncertain. It might get us thrown out of the ‘political science’ club, but here are 5 things that Mark Reckless’ win shows that we don’t know about the May 2015 general election.

We still think of politics as a left versus right clash, but is 2015 going to be an ‘up-down’ election: the people against a political class that they see as failed and out of touch?
If Labour is up then surely the Conservatives are down, and vice versa? But the day after Rochester and Strood both Labour and the Conservatives are down. Is zero sum politics dead and buried?
Can UKIP break the mould? They just won what experts listed as their 271st most winnable seat. Perhaps, as Nigel Farage said, all bets are off? Will support continue to drain from the mainstream parties to their smaller rivals like UKIP and the Greens? If it does, the dynamics of elections and coalition politics are transformed.
Can things get worse for the Liberal Democrats? This question has been asked for the last four years and the answer has tended to be yes. How much lower can they go? In Rochester and Strood they were polling at 1%, with the margin of error this could put them at -2%, which is truly unexplored territory.
Social media was seen as a way for politicians to connect with the electorate and for democratic debate to be widened and energised. Emily Thornberry didn’t get that memo.

These are all things that we don’t know about the 2015 general election. Keep checking this blog for even more.

Latest / Highlights

News / Parliament Matters Bulletin: What’s coming up in Parliament this week? 10-14 November 2025

Peers begin clause-by-clause scrutiny of the assisted dying Bill, after a Joint Committee on Human Rights evidence session on its impact on disabled people. David Lammy takes Justice questions in the Commons. The Planning and Infrastructure Bill completes its Lords stages and begins Commons ping-pong. MPs hold a Remembrance Day debate on the armed forces. Prime Minister’s Questions is followed by a Conservative Opposition Day. The Lords continue detailed scrutiny of the Border Security Bill, Tobacco and Vapes Bill, and Crime and Policing Bill and debate the Sentencing Bill for the first time. Four Secretaries of State face questions from Select Committees and Dame Antonia Romeo, the Home Office Permanent Secretary, will face scrutiny of her department’s performance.

News / Parliament, the Monarch & the birth of party politics: How did it happen? - Parliament Matters podcast, Episode 113

As Britain’s modern party system frays, we rewind 300+ years to Queen Anne’s reign to trace the messy, very human birth of Britain’s party politics in conversation with historian George Owers, author of Rage of Party. He charts how religion, war, and raw parliamentary management forged early party politics, as the Whigs and Tories hardened into recognisable parties. Parliament turned from an occasional royal event into a permanent institution, and the job that would later be called “Prime Minister” began to take shape through court craft and parliamentary number-crunching. Please help us by completing our Listener Survey. It will only take a few minutes.

News / Why did Nigel Farage's Ten Minute Rule Bill fail? - Parliament Matters podcast, Episode 112

Nigel Farage’s legislative bid to take Britain out of the European Convention on Human Rights failed but Labour’s hesitant response has raised questions about its strategy against Reform UK. We also discuss Lucy Powell’s election as Labour’s new deputy leader and what it means for the party’s budget battles ahead. Guest Sofia Collignon explores the growing abuse faced by MPs and candidates, and the need for tougher safeguards. Finally, a listener’s question prompts a discussion about the history and purpose of Westminster Hall, the House of Commons’ parallel debating chamber. Please help us by completing our Listener Survey. It will only take a few minutes.

News / Parliament vs. Prince Andrew - Parliament Matters podcast, Episode 111

This week, we explore how far Parliament can go in holding members of the Royal Family to account, as pressure grows for MPs to scrutinise Prince Andrew’s finances and royal titles. We ask whether Nigel Farage should get a right of reply at Prime Minister’s Questions amid his growing prominence, and examine Labour’s reshuffle of select committee posts and calls for greater transparency in how they’re filled. Plus, a look back at the rebuilding of the House of Commons Chamber, 75 years after its postwar reopening. Please help us by completing our Listener Survey. It will only take a few minutes.

Briefings / Assisted dying - The Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill: Rolling news

Stay informed with updates and analysis on the Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill as it moves through Parliament. Learn about the debates, procedures, decisions, and key milestones shaping the assisted dying legislation.