The Danish Nobel prize winning physicist Nils Bohr observed that prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. He wasn’t thinking about the 2015 general election when he said this, but he might as well have been.

The Rochester and Strood by-election makes things more uncertain. It might get us thrown out of the ‘political science’ club, but here are 5 things that Mark Reckless’ win shows that we don’t know about the May 2015 general election.

  1. We still think of politics as a left versus right clash, but is 2015 going to be an ‘up-down’ election: the people against a political class that they see as failed and out of touch?

  • If Labour is up then surely the Conservatives are down, and vice versa? But the day after Rochester and Strood both Labour and the Conservatives are down. Is zero sum politics dead and buried?

  • Can UKIP break the mould? They just won what experts listed as their 271st most winnable seat. Perhaps, as Nigel Farage said, all bets are off? Will support continue to drain from the mainstream parties to their smaller rivals like UKIP and the Greens? If it does, the dynamics of elections and coalition politics are transformed.

  • Can things get worse for the Liberal Democrats? This question has been asked for the last four years and the answer has tended to be yes. How much lower can they go? In Rochester and Strood they were polling at 1%, with the margin of error this could put them at -2%, which is truly unexplored territory.

  • Social media was seen as a way for politicians to connect with the electorate and for democratic debate to be widened and energised. Emily Thornberry didn’t get that memo.

These are all things that we don’t know about the 2015 general election. Keep checking this blog for even more.

Image Courtesy: Wikimedia, Licensed under the Creative Commons

Enjoy reading this? Please consider sharing it

Latest

Westminster Lens logo, Houses of Parliament
blog / 15.02.19

Westminster Lens: Brexit Statutory Instruments Dashboard

In the run-up to the UK’s exit from the EU on 29 March 2019 we will be tracking the progress made by government and Parliament in preparing the statute book for exit day. Our analysis draws on parliamentary data and our own Statutory Instrument Tracker which we built several years ago to support our research on delegated legislation.

Westminster Lens: Brexit Statutory Instruments Dashboard
Photo of a clock showing the countdown to Brexit
blog / 12.02.19

Can the government get all its Brexit Statutory Instruments through Parliament by exit day on 29 March?

There is much speculation that time is running out for pre-Brexit legislation, with – on the SI front – 412 Brexit SIs now laid but potentially up to 200 still to be produced. While the total could prove nearer 500 than 600, even the higher number can still be on the statute book for 29 March, but potentially at some cost to parliamentary scrutiny.

Can the government get all its Brexit Statutory Instruments through Parliament by exit day on 29 March?
Ian Paisley Jr campaigning
blog / 04.02.19

First use of the Recall of MPs Act: A tough test in North Antrim

The first use of the Recall of MPs Act 2015 proved a damp squib, with not enough local electors signing the petition to trigger a by-election. This outcome reflected a mixture of challenging local factors in North Antrim and some broader shortcomings that might generate changes for any future use of the Act.

First use of the Recall of MPs Act: A tough test in North Antrim
Big Ben wrapped in scaffolding, UK Houses of Parliament, Westminster
blog / 31.01.19

Westminster Restoration and Renewal: A year on from the Commons vote to proceed

It’s a year since the House of Commons voted to proceed with the proposed multi-billion-pound refurbishment of the dangerously dilapidated Palace of Westminster. The vote was a clear step forward, and considerable progress has been made since, but the tight vote and opposition to full decant among Conservative MPs suggest the path ahead could remain rocky.

Westminster Restoration and Renewal: A year on from the Commons vote to proceed
Prev
Next