• Our work

      Themes

    • Brexit and Parliament
    • Future Parliament
    • Governance of Parliament
    • Making better law
    • Parliaments around the world
    • Parliamentary scrutiny
    • Political engagement
    • Representation
    • publications

    • Publications Home
    • Procedural and constitutional guides
    • Briefings
    • Reports
    • Submissions
    • projects

    • Audit of Political Engagement
    • Mock Elections 2019
    • services

    • Statutory Instrument Tracker®
  • About

      about

      who we are

    • What we do
    • Our history
    • Our governance
    • contact

    • Our people
    • Contact us
    • Contacts for the media
    • careers

    • Jobs
    • subscribe

    • Insight Notes newsletter
    • Hansard Society newsletter
  • Blog
  • News
  • Events
  • Journal
  • Scholars
Hansard Society logoHansard Society logo
  • Our work

    • Themes

      • Brexit and Parliament
      • Future Parliament
      • Governance of Parliament
      • Making better law
      • Parliaments around the world
      • Parliamentary scrutiny
      • Political engagement
      • Representation
    • publications

      • Publications Home
      • Procedural and constitutional guides
      • Briefings
      • Reports
      • Submissions

      projects

      • Audit of Political Engagement
      • Mock Elections 2019

      services

      • Statutory Instrument Tracker®
  • About

    • about

        who we are

      • What we do
      • Our history
      • Our governance
      • contact

      • Our people
      • Contact us
      • Contacts for the media
      • careers

      • Jobs
      • subscribe

      • Insight Notes newsletter
      • Hansard Society newsletter
      • Join our newsletter

        Get the latest updates on our research and events, together with expert comment and analysis, delivered to your inbox each month.

        You can unsubscribe at any time. Read our privacy policy here.

        Thank you!

        You have been successfully added to our newsletter list.

        Follow us

        :( Oops! Something went wrong...

        Please reload the page and try again.

        Insight Notes

        Subscribe to our regular Insight Notes on parliamentary data, procedures and the legislative process at Westminster, including updates on Brexit Statutory Instruments - in your inbox every sitting Monday afternoon.

        You can unsubscribe at any time. Read our privacy policy here.

        Thank you!

        You have been successfully added to our Insight Notes email list.

        Follow us

        :( Oops! Something went wrong...

        Please reload the page and try again.

      Follow us

  • Blog

    Blog

    • blog

      • Despatch Box Blog
  • News

    News

    • news

      • News Home
  • Events

    Events

    • events

      • Events
  • Journal

    Journal

    • journal

      • Parliamentary Affairs
  • Scholars

    Scholars

    The word 'Money' spelled out in scrabble.
    blog / 05.12.14

    In a close contest, will money make a difference?

    Share this

    In the run-up to any election, attention often turns to party finance. In the US, for example, coverage of Presidential campaigns often refers to how much candidates have raised. In Britain, the sums involved are far lower.

    Professor Justin Fisher

    Professor Justin Fisher

    Professor of Political Science, Brunel University

    This is partly because of a tremendously far-sighted decision at the birth of commercial television to not permit party advertising on broadcast media, and partly because since 2001, the amounts that can be spent by national parties on elections have been capped following the implementation of the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000.

    Indeed, since 2001, the permitted level of campaign expenditure has become even lower in real terms. The limit is calculated at a rate of £30,000 per constituency contested. For the major parties contesting all of the seats in Britain in 2015 the spending limit will therefore be just shy of £19 million (as it was in 2010). But the figure of £30,000 per constituency has never been adjusted for inflation, so the amount the parties are allowed to spend in real terms is steadily falling: £19 million will buy around a third less in 2015 than it did in 2000; in real terms it equates to around £13 million at 2000 prices. Over time, elections are costing less.

    Of course, while election spending is limited, that does not imply that all parties spend up to the limit. In 2010, Labour managed to spend only around £8 million, while the Liberal Democrats have never been able to spend anything like even that low total – they spent £4.8 million in 2010. Even the comparatively wealthy Conservatives spent quite a bit less than the permitted maximum: £16.7 million. That Conservative financial advantage was driven by the ‘return to the norm’ in the years before 2010, when the Conservatives resumed their mantle as the wealthy party – a position that had been interrupted by Tony Blair’s stewardship of the Labour Party. Since 2010, however, there are signs that this may again be changing. Up to and including the latest available accounts ending in 2013, Labour has attracted more income. As Figure 1 below shows, Conservative income after 2010 dropped off fairly sharply and though Labour’s income has been swelled by the receipt of public funds (Short money) by virtue of being in opposition, their income has still exceeded that of the Conservatives since 2010. However, declared donations to the central parties (donations in excess of £7.5k) during 2014 suggest that the Conservatives may be better placed financially come the election. Over the first three quarters of this year, the Conservatives have received £18.2 million against Labour’s £12.6 million (including Short money) and the Liberal Democrats’ £3.8 million.

    Figure 1

    Central party income 1989-2013 (at 2003 prices)

    Other indicators also suggest that the 2015 election may see parties spending closer to the permitted maximum. A previous trend for parties is that they have often spent much more than their income in any one year. Over the last eight years, however, that particular habit has been broken. Both Labour and the Conservatives have generally been able to contain their spending, and while the reverse has been true for the Liberal Democrats, the latest accounts (2013) indicate that they too have been able to spend less than they’ve generated (Figure 2). The result for the largest two parties is that their liabilities have fallen sharply.

    Figure 2

    Central expenditure as a percentage of central income, 2003-2013

    So, if nothing else, 2015 looks like it will be a more even spending contest between Labour and the Conservatives. The Liberal Democrats as usual will have far less financial muscle. But will this lead to electoral payoffs? The evidence, here, is decidedly mixed. At national level, there is very little evidence that increased spending by parties gives them a significant financial advantage. In part, that is a function of the growing electoral importance of constituency level campaigning, on which all parties pay increasing attention – especially in their target seats.

    Election expenditure at constituency level is assigned to the candidate rather than the party during the regulated campaign period. And, there is consistent evidence over time that candidates who spend more tend to perform better electorally, particularly when they are challengers. In 2010, had Conservative candidates spent the maximum possible in every seat and both Labour and Liberal Democrat spent very little, the Conservatives would have won an estimated 344 seats, enough for a working Commons majority. A similar scenario where Labour candidates spent the maximum and other parties mounted minimal campaigns would have produced an estimated 282 seats for Labour. However, what candidate spending fails to capture is voluntary effort, the labour provided for free by party activists and supporters. When this is factored in, the positive electoral effects of higher spending can be offset by the free campaigning delivered by those activists. Thus, despite the Conservatives candidates’ significant financial advantage in 2010, both Labour and Liberal Democrat candidates were able to counter this through their voluntary efforts, supplied for free. Had Labour campaigns engaged in the highest levels of free campaigning (as undertaken in their most intense campaigns) in every seat (with Conservative and Liberal Democrat campaigns being minimal), Labour would have won an estimated 350 seats (see You Get What You (don’t) Pay for: The Impact of Volunteer Labour and Candidate Spending at the 2010 British General Election). In other words, the effects of free campaigns sometimes can be greater than those based on money.

    So, 2015 looks like it may be a more even contest than 2010 in terms of party spending – at least for the two largest parties. And, given the closeness of the election, we can probably anticipate a great deal of campaigning, both at national and constituency levels. That’s a good thing. More intense campaigning (which, of course, costs money) has a demonstrably beneficial effect on turnout. But, we should also remember that the amount parties can spend on elections is decreasing in real terms year-on-year. That may need to be addressed if the beneficial effects of campaigning on turnout and voter education are to continue. Equally though, we should also remember that voters tend to respond positively to the human touch, which is frequently provided for free.


    Image Courtesy: Philip Taylor, Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic


    Enjoy reading this? Please consider sharing it

    Related

    'First virtual PMQs and Ministerial statement on Coronavirus', © UK Parliament / Jessica Taylor.
    blog / 04.12.20

    Why the exclusion of pregnant MPs from the House of Commons during Covid-19 matters – for them and for others

    Covent Garden Market, Westminster election, 1 Jully 1808 (designed and etched by Thomas Rowlandson), This print records temporary wooden stands erected outside St.Paul's Church in Covent Garden Market to allow politicians running for Parliament in the Westminster election to address voters. On this occasion a large crowd has gathered, carrying banners and spilling out into the square, with some figures perched on a roof at right to listen to a speaker. (Source: The Metropolitan Museum of Art)
    blog / 13.11.20

    Controverted elections: how disputed results used to be part and parcel of English political and parliamentary life

    Cover image for the Parliamentary Affairs journal
    journal

    Parliamentary Affairs (vol 73, issue 3, 2020)

    Cover image for the Parliamentary Affairs journal
    journal

    Parliamentary Affairs (vol 73, issue 1, 2020)

    The House of Commons debating the Withdrawal Agreement during the Saturday-sitting on 19 October, 2019
    news / articles

    Even with a majority, getting Brexit done on deadline will be no mean feat

    People walking over Westminster Bridge towards the Palace of Westminster, Houses of Parliament
    projects

    Audit of Political Engagement

    People walking over Westminster Bridge towards the Palace of Westminster, Houses of Parliament
    publica… / reports / 2019

    Audit of Political Engagement 16

    Audit 15 cover
    publica… / reports / 2018

    Audit of Political Engagement 15

    Join our newsletter

    Get the latest updates on our research and events, together with expert comment and analysis, delivered to your inbox each month.

    You can unsubscribe at any time. Read our privacy policy here.

    Thank you!

    You have been successfully added to our newsletter list.

    Follow us

    :( Oops! Something went wrong...

    Please reload the page and try again.

    Top three

    House of Lords
    events

    House of Lords Speaker Hustings 2021

    Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak MP at the Despatch Box in the House of Commons, 8 July 2020 (©UK Parliament / Jessica Taylor)
    publica… / guides / 2021

    Financial Scrutiny: the Finance Bill

    Coronavirus medical animation
    publica… / data / 2020

    Coronavirus Statutory Instruments Dashboard

    Latest

    House of Lords
    events

    House of Lords Speaker Hustings 2021

    The Hansard Society hosted two online hustings for the candidates in the 2021 Lord Speaker election. The first event, on 25 March, was chaired by the BBC’s parliamentary correspondent Mark D’Arcy; and the second, on 13 April, was chaired by Jackie Ashley, former political correspondent and broadcaster.

    House of Lords Speaker Hustings 2021
    UK Houses of Parliament surrounded by scaffolding
    blog / 13.03.21

    Groundhog Day for Restoration and Renewal after the Strategic Review: There is still no alternative

    The Strategic Review of the Palace of Westminster Restoration and Renewal programme has been published, after 10 months’ work – but political factors mean that implementation of the programme’s main conclusion, that there will be a ‘full decant’ from the building while work takes place, remains in doubt.

    Groundhog Day for Restoration and Renewal after the Strategic Review: There is still no alternative
    The Chancellor with the Budget box in front of 11 Downing Street before heading to the House of Commons to deliver the Budget, 11 March 2020 (© HM Treasury)
    publications / guides / 2021

    Financial Scrutiny: the Budget

    In order to raise income, the government needs to obtain approval from Parliament for its taxation plans. The Budget process is the means by which the House of Commons considers the government’s plans to impose ‘charges on the people’ and its assessment of the wider state of the economy.

    Financial Scrutiny: the Budget
    Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak MP at the Despatch Box in the House of Commons, 8 July 2020 (©UK Parliament / Jessica Taylor)
    publications / guides / 2021

    Financial Scrutiny: the Finance Bill

    The Finance Bill enacts the government’s Budget provisions – its income-raising proposals and detailed tax changes. Parliament’s scrutiny and authorisation of these taxation plans are crucial in holding the government to account – between elections – for the money it raises and spends.

    Financial Scrutiny: the Finance Bill
    Lord David Frost
    blog / 19.02.21

    Lord Frost appointment raises parliamentary scrutiny questions

    Lord Frost’s appointment as Minister of State in the Cabinet Office to lead on UK-EU relations brings some welcome clarity about future government arrangements in this area. However, it also raises challenges for parliamentary scrutiny, above all with respect to his status as a Member of the House of Lords.

    Lord Frost appointment raises parliamentary scrutiny questions
    A table tennis match
    blog / 13.02.21

    Ping-pong and packaging

    There was controversy on 9 February over whether the government had used procedural trickery to swerve a backbench rebellion in the House of Commons on a clause inserted in the Trade Bill by the House of Lords. Apparently, it was something to do with ‘packaging’. What does that mean, and was it true? The answer is all about ‘ping-pong’.

    Ping-pong and packaging
    Prev
    Next
    • Recent pages
      • In a close contest, will money make a difference?blog
    • Home
    • Contact us
    • What we do
    • Jobs
    • Privacy policy
    • Site map

    Join our newsletter

    Get the latest updates on our research and events, together with expert comment and analysis, delivered to your inbox each month.

    You can unsubscribe at any time. Read our privacy policy here.

    Thank you!

    You have been successfully added to our newsletter list.

    Follow us

    :( Oops! Something went wrong...

    Please reload the page and try again.

    Copyright © 2020 Hansard Society • Charity No: 1091364 • Registration No: 4332105.