Making sense of May 7: the 2015 election and the future of British politics

Events

Making sense of May 7: the 2015 election and the future of British politics

8 Sep 2015

On 8 September we invited Professor John Curtice and other leading analysts to dissect the implications of the 2015 general election at the launch of the first major book on the campaign and its outcome, Britain Votes 2015.

The general election was one of the most extraordinary contests of recent times, with an outcome that surprised many commentators. A race that was supposedly ‘neck-and-neck’ and heading for a hung Parliament resulted in the first majority Conservative government since 1992.

So how did a fragmented political system actually deliver single party government and what are the consequences for the future of the British political system?
Can the Conservative performance be explained by the ‘black widow effect’? And if so, having devoured the Lib Dems, what does the future now hold for David Cameron and his party given the structural problems it still faces and with an electorate whose support for it remains cagey and contingent?
Despite ideological and political incoherence are there still significant opportunities for Labour to exploit in the future? Might brand distinctiveness help nullify the Conservative advantages on economic competence and leadership?
What now for UKIP? Will the issue of immigration continue to exacerbate the break-down of the British party system?
And what of the polls? Should there now be an inquiry not just into polling methodology, but also into how the media cover polls during an election campaign – can we get away from the horserace?

Speakers

Professor Tim Bale

Professor of Politics at Queen Mary University of London, Tim is one of the leading commentators on British party politics. His most recent publications have chronicled the Five Year Mission: The Labour Party Under Ed Miliband and charted the development of The Conservative Party from Thatcher to Cameron. He is also a regular media commentator with articles featuring frequently in the Guardian, Daily Telegraph, and Financial Times.

Professor Sarah Childs

Professor of Politics and Gender at the University of Bristol, Sarah was a special adviser to the Speaker’s Conference on Parliamentary Representation and is currently on a ‘knowledge exchange secondment’ exploring how to make the House of Commons a more gender sensitive institution. She has written widely about women’s representation and party politics, most recently in her book, Sex, Gender and the Conservative Party: From Iron Lady to Kitten Heels.

Professor John Curtice

Professor of Politics at the University of Strathclyde, John led the team of academics that produced the general election night exit poll that delivered the now famous 10pm forecast of the final result. He currently serves as President of the British Polling Council which, following the election, set up an inquiry into the performance of the opinion polls. He is Research Consultant at NatCen Social Research where he co-edits the British Social Attitudes Survey. He was recently awarded an ESRC Fellowship to lead work on a new research initiative, ‘The UK in a Changing Europe’, which will provide easy access to comprehensive, impartial information about what the public thinks about Europe in advance of the proposed referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU.

Professor Matthew Goodwin

Professor of Political Science at the University of Kent, Matthew’s latest book, Revolt on the Right, won the 2015 Paddy Power Political Book of the Year award. A Senior Visiting Fellow at Chatham House he is the leading analyst of radical right politics. With unprecedented access to UKIP his forthcoming book, UKIP : Inside the Campaign to Redraw the Map of British Politics, will tell the inside story of the party’s election quest. Register here

Latest / Highlights

News / Parliament Matters Bulletin: What’s coming up in Parliament this week? 20-24 October 2025

MPs will focus on the Bill to implement the UK–Mauritius Treaty transferring sovereignty over the Chagos Islands, the Sentencing Bill, and the Renters’ Rights Bill which is expected to be sent for Royal Assent. They will also discuss Scottish devolution and Black History Month, while the Northern Ireland Secretary gives evidence on the Windsor Framework and the legacy of the Troubles. In the Lords, the new Select Committee to consider the assisted dying bill begins its work. Peers will also examine the Planning and Infrastructure Bill, the Fraud Recovery Bill, and the Deprivation of Citizenship Orders Bill. They will hear from the Bank of England Governor, and consider the proposed suspension of former Lord Speaker, Baroness D’Souza.

News / Parliament’s spying scandal: Why was the China case dropped? - Parliament Matters podcast, Episode 110

It’s been a tumultuous week in Westminster, with three ministerial statements on the China spying case and fresh questions about the collapse of charges against two alleged spies. We are joined by Cambridge public law expert Professor Mark Elliott to untangle the legal and political fallout, from espionage claims inside MPs’ offices to confusion over whether China was ever designated an “enemy state.” We also explore looming government challenges — the Budget, Afghan data leak, local election setbacks — and the membership of the new Select Committee to consider the assisted dying legislation in the House of Lords. Please help us by completing our Listener Survey. It will only take a few minutes.

News / Former Prime Ministers: The role of Parliament in life after No 10 - Parliament Matters podcast, Episode 109

In this episode, we speak with Peter Just, author of a new book, Margaret Thatcher: Life After Downing Street. Peter explores how Thatcher reinvented herself after her departure to maintain her status as an international figure, and how she remained a parliamentary thorn in John Major’s side. We also compare her parliamentary afterlife with that of other Prime Ministers, and consider the value that former leaders can bring to the institution of Parliament. Please help us by completing our Listener Survey. It will only take a few minutes.

Briefings / Assisted dying - The Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill: Rolling news

Stay informed with updates and analysis on the Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill as it moves through Parliament. Learn about the debates, procedures, decisions, and key milestones shaping the assisted dying legislation.

News / What are the Usual Channels? A short history of Westminster whipping - Parliament Matters podcast, Episode 108

In this episode, we talk to political journalist Seb Whale about his new book, The Usual Channels, which reveals the hidden world of Westminster’s whips. Seb charts how party discipline has evolved – from the stormy politics of the 1970s and the Maastricht battles of the 1990s to the legendary “black book,” the Brexit showdowns and the short-lived Liz Truss premiership. He explains how the whips’ office has adapted to a modern Parliament – especially with the influx of women MPs – and why, even today, whips still wield decisive influence over MPs’ careers and remain indispensable despite the pressures of contemporary politics. Please help us by completing our Listener Survey. It will only take a few minutes.